Why it is the best time to invest in Bitcoin?

Lebedev

Lebedev

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#1
What are the most probable ways of cryptocurrencies development? Which problems they are going to face? And what will happen to blockchain?

There already was a post about cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, and what will they become in a decade:

Bitcoin and Blockchain after a Decade - HYIP.com

But today we're going to take a look at the same question: what will happen, but in a much shorter time. And instead of prediction and possible cased you will find nothing here, but the facts.

The price leap, that everyone had been waiting for, in the end of the previous year did not happen, but the only thing why it didn't is that in the recent years all of us had improper view of the situation in crypto industry.

Since the end of year 2018 the price of bitcoin has been mostly going down, what is against the crypto enthusiasts expectations of “the historical leap” in the fourth quarter, what it has already happened several times.

Continue of the bear trend is, how we see, mostly caused by a negative attitude of governments and regulators as well as the selling pressure getting bigger after the support line of $6000 (the dotted black line at the graph below) was finally breached. This pressure used to help the price to stay in the oversold range (what can be seen on graphs with RSI and SWTO indicators) as long as several weeks.

Recently, the price has begun to get alright. RSI and SWTO, however, still has a decreasing trend (these are black lines), this might mean future price fall during the first quarter of 2019, when bitcoin is looking for the stable bottom.

Bitcoin. What is going to be in the year 2019


Volatility and Price Increase aren't the Same

How it was already said, a lot of crypto industry players were mistaken in that the last quarter will be a historical period for bitcoin and altcoins, especially in the period between the middle of November and the very end of December. But what lots if people considered to be a price growing time, we will cherish forever has turned as a giant leap in volatility we will never forget.

At the graph you can see day-long volatility trends that are now in the hall of fame of cryptocurrency history, these have been created every year since 2013. This is wrong to think that as a rule prices go up in the end of a year simply because higher volatility used to be equalized to higher prices.

Bitcoin. What is going to be in the year 2019

How the graph shows, the volatility trends of bitcoin since the year 2013 goes in obvious ways, what makes this parameter much bigger in the last quarter. The dynamic was found actual in the previous year again, when the price volatility went down in period between the October and the middle of November, what is usually followed by a big price leap. This time however, volatility was followed by a bitcoin price going down instead of going up like it had been years before.

After analyzing the main trend of 2018 (for sure the bear one) the idea of that the probability of price negative movement is much higher than the positive, should be obvious for the market players.


The Main Indicators

The fundamental indicators might be found extremely helpful for choosing the potential price movement model, in case it is based on researches of subjective data. But taking the small size of the selection of bitcoin market cycles in count (n = 10), the result of each indicator and the prognosis ability should be viewed skeptical enough.

Nick Carter from Castle Island Ventures and Anthony Le Kalvis from blockchain.info have recently developed so called coefficient of realized bitcoin price, what helps to find out the real value of one coin, counting the quantity of lost and stuck coins. Experts say that the difference between the realized price and the market one consists in that instead of counting all the emitted currency using the present market count, the UTXO blockchain model aggregates and prices on crypto are calculated using the BTC/USD market price at the time of last UTXO movement.

Using the CoinMetrics data, the value of realized limit comparing with the marginal one, can be visualized pretty accurately, even when we have a small size selection. The difference between the market capitalization and the realized price can be viewed as a serious cause of price movements, at the same time the dominance of market capitalization over the realized one might become a reason of the serious bull trend, while the inverse situation can become a reason of inverse trend - the bear one.

If take a look at the graph the market capitalization had been under the realized one since 28 December 2014 and right before 28 October 2015, which is the same time period of bitcoin high volatility.

In this case the volatility coincide with rise in the price and was the beginning if two year long bull trend. This time on 20 November 2018 the market capitalization was lover than the realized capital. In this way, if the story is really cycled investors can count on price going down in the present year, which is going to last until the very end of the bear trend and the beginning of the new, even more powerful, bull domination in the end of the fourth quarter of 2019 (somewhere between November and December).

Bitcoin. What is going to be in the year 2019


Summary

For the last bitcoin price movement was very negative, but probably these market events have showed the very beginning of the main cryptocurrency normalisation trend, what can be seen using a few most important parameters. Due to the WVRM analysis, if the behavior is cycled, price will continue falling down, what will be continued by the market being in a side trend during the last quarter and the brand new bull market.
 
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rata

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#2
I do not remember the source in which I read this information , but it says that it will be very hot for the BTC rate in 2020. When many have lost faith in growth again there will be a big price increase to$50,000
 
Lebedev

Lebedev

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#3
I do not remember the source in which I read this information , but it says that it will be very hot for the BTC rate in 2020. When many have lost faith in growth again there will be a big price increase to$50,000
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What the analysis says is that a big leap and a powerful trend are going to take place in the end of this year after price going down for long. So what you say may become real pretty soon, but another factor is no less important here: if the society get the idea of that bitcoin offers them full financial freedom as well as an opportunity to create a fair market with no government monopolies, bitcoin will become as valuable as gold used to be.
 
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Cedric James

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Dec 19, 2018
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#5
Having a good broker is also important for making profits. A right forex broker can make your trading way profitable. My broker BPRIMES ensure best trading platform where I can earn my living costs easily. Making a good profit on forex is not easy. Its depends on your trading skills. If you have a good trading strategy, the perfect plan then you can make good profits. You need to strict to your plan.
 

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