Hotforex - Market Analysis and News.

H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
176
Points
389
Date : 31st January 2020.

EURUSD & FOMC Preview




GBPUSD, H1

Risk-off positioning in currencies came to an uncertain pause, amid a backdrop of sputtering stock markets amid continuing concerns about the spread of the coronavirus in and out of China, and the economic-damaging impact that efforts to contain the contagion is having.

USDJPY edged out a two-day high as the Japanese currency saw some of its safe-haven premium erode. The pair posted a two-day high at 109.13, putting in a little distance from the 23-day low posted yesterday at 108.58. EURJPY also printed a two-day high, at 120.40, while AUDJPY fared a little less well, holding within its Thursday range, though settling above the three-and-a-half-month lows.

AUDUSD remained heavy after yesterday’s run to a three-and-a-half-month low at 0.6700. This is now the fifth consecutive week the Australian Dollar has declined, with markets factoring in the double-whammy economic impact of the worst-in-decades wildfires and the consequences of dealing with the coronavirus outbreak out of China (to which Australia is particularly exposed, given its strong trading links with China and vastly reduced Chinese tourist visitations over the Lunar New Year period). The RBA meet next week with expectations dimming of a rate cut, making the 0.6700 handle even more significant.

EURUSD has put in another sub-20-pip range so far, holding below yesterday’s one-week peak at 1.1039.

Cable built on the gains seen following yesterday’s BoE no-change policy announcement, which came contrary to at least some expectation for a rate cut. The Pound posted a fresh one-week high at 1.3135. EURGBP concurrently extended to a new one-week low, at 0.8400. Brexit day has dawned and at 23:00 GMT a very disunited kingdom leaves the EU after 47 years.

USDCAD remained buoyant, above 1.3200, although slightly off from yesterday’s seven-week high at 1.3226. The new high was concomitant with oil prices hitting one-year lows. This is now the fourth straight week USDCAD has risen, which has been concomitant with a four-week stretch of tumbling oil prices. The USOil benchmark has dropped by some 21% over this period.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!




Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
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H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
176
Points
389
Date : 3rd February 2020

Events to Look Out For Next Week.




Chinese markets reopen next week following a global sell-off coupled with escalating disruptions caused by the coronavirus. The spread of the coronavirus is expected to continue dominating the market as it is starting to pose yet another risk to the global economy. Along with monitoring the virus, in the week ahead traders will look to more earnings out of the US, along with the US Jobs Report and RBA rate decision.
Monday – 03 February 2020

  • Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin Manufacturing PMI is expected to hold close to neutral, at 51.5 for January.
  • Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 01:45) – The German Manufacturing PMI is likely to once again confirm a recession in the manufacturing sector, at 45.2 for January.
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM Index is expected to tick up to 47.5 in January from 47.2 in December, compared to a 14-year high of 60.8 in August of ’18.
Tuesday – 04 February 2020

  • Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 03:30) – No surprises are expected in the RBA’s interest rate decision, while its statement should provide important insights regarding the future of the Australian economy. Market positioning in Australian cash rate futures implies a 19% probability for a 25 bp rate cut, down from the 58% odds being given before the release of an unexpectedly solid employment report out of Australia.
  • Labour Market Data (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The final reading for Q4 employment change is expected to show few positive labor reports. The unemployment rate is anticipated at 3.8% from 4.2%, while participation rate is seen rising at 71.1%.
Wednesday – 05 February 2020

  • RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 01:30)
  • ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is seen drifting to 155k in the number of employed people in January, compared to the 202k reading seen last month.
  • Trade Balance (USD, GMT 13:30) – The trade deficit is expected to widen in December to -$49.7 bln from -$43.1 bln in November. The exports are expected to rise 0.3% to $209.3 bln, and imports to rebound by 2.9% to $259.1 bln. A rebound is expected for both oil import prices and volume that prompt a $3 bln petroleum import bounce, and also for most other commodity components as well, following outsized November declines. Imports from China have sharply undershot the usual seasonal pattern since July, with a particularly big hit in October and November. Tariff front running in late-2018 and early-2019 is now being unwound, though we expect some give-back for this pattern in December.
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM-NMI Index is expected to rise to 55.1 in January from 55.0 in December and a recent low of 52.6 in September, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September of 2018.
Thursday – 06 February 2020

RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 01:30)

European Commission releases Economic Growth Forecasts (EUR, GMT 10:00)

Friday – 07 February 2020


  • NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 50k January Nonfarm payroll rise is seen, following a 145k increase in December. The jobless rate should hold steady at 3.5% for a third month and average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.0%. We will get the annual revisions for the establishment survey with the January report, and guidance suggests a -501k revision in the March 2019 payroll level that implies -42k reductions per month, on average, for the twelve months ending last March.
  • Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada’s employment rebounded 35.2k in December after the 71.2k plunge in November. The unemployment rate fell to 5.6% from 5.9%, undershooting projections for an incremental dip to 5.8%. The participation rate dipped to 65.5% from 65.6%. For January, the unemployment rate is expected to rise at 5.8% while participation rate should remain unchanged.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
176
Points
389
Date : 04th February 2020.

US Open and US ISM manufacturing




US Open and US ISM manufacturing – US ISM manufacturing index bounced 3.1 points to 50.9 in January, much better than expected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!




Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
176
Points
389
Date : 06th February 2020.

US Services PMIs also revised higher - 06th February




USDIndex, Daily
The January ISM non-manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 55.5 from 55.1, the December figure sat at 54.9. The components were mixed. The employment sub-index dipped to 53.1 from 54.8 previously (revised from 55.2). New orders improved to 56.2 versus 55.3 (revised from 54.9), though new export orders slipped -0.9 ticks to 50.1. Imports jumped 7.1 points to 55.1. And prices paid fell to 55.5 from from 59.3 (revised from 58.5). Although the headline is below data from 2017 through most of 2019, this a solid report for the economy.

US Markit services PMI was also revised up to 53.4 in the final January print versus the 53.2 preliminary. And it’s up from the 52.8 in December. It was at 54.2 a year ago. It’s the highest since March. The employment component rose to 51.8 from 51.7 in December and is the third straight month of expansion. Prices charged declined. The composite was nudged up to 53.3 from the 53.1 preliminary, and is up from December’s 52.7. It was at 54.4 last January, and also is the best since March. Input prices increased to 52.6 versus December’s 52.5, a fourth straight monthly gain, and are the highest since June. The data continue to show resilience to the nCoV scare.

The PMI data lifted the Greenback and its recovery during January continues into February. The USDIndex is over 98.00 for the time since in the 45 trading days since December 3.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!




Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
176
Points
389
Date : 07th February 2020.

Dollar on bid on NFP day - 07th February




The Dollar has remained broadly underpinned following the round of solid US data releases on Thursday, including upbeat consumer confidence and a stabilization in manufacturing after passage of the trade deals. US payrolls will be the other main focus for markets today.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!




Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
176
Points
389
Date : 10th February 2020

Events to Look Out For Next Week 10th February 2020.




Markets are restive on the rapid spread of the nCoV and its impact on the global economy, especially after reports that factories in China will remain closed into next week. Meanwhile, any announcement about the prospects for trade talks between the UK and US could come into the spotlight. These come alongside growth rate data from the UK and Eurozone, RBNZ Monetary policy and US inflation.

Monday – 10 February 2020

  • Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The Chinese CPI is expected to spike in January to 4.9%y/y following a steady December and after hitting its highest since 2012 in November.
Tuesday – 11 February 2020
  • Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The economy’s most important figure, Q4 GDP is expected to be higher at 1% q/q following the 0.4% reading for Q3.
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The two indices are expected to have grown to 0.2% m/m and -0.1% respectively in December, with manufacturing production recovering partially from a -1.7% decline in the prior month.
  • Housing Starts and Building Permits (CAD, GMT 13:15) – Housing starts slowed in December, to a 197.3k unit pace from a revised 204.3k rate in November. In January, the index is expected to bounce back to 210K. The separate building permits report revealed a 2.4% drop in values during November, while a growth up to 1% is anticipated for December.
Wednesday – 12 February 2020
  • Interest Rate Decision and Statement (NZD, GMT 20:00) – RBNZ is expected to cut rates by 25 bp to 0.75%. The bank held rates steady at 1.00% in November, upending widespread expectations for a cut to 0.75%.
Thursday – 13 February 2020
  • BoC’s Governor Poloz speech and RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (NZD, GMT 00:15)
  • Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 07:00) – The German HICP inflation for January is seen steady at 1.6% y/y.
  • Consumer Price Index and core (USD, GMT 13:30) – The headline CPI should rise 0.1% in January, with a 0.2% core price increase, following respective December readings of 0.2% and 0.1%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y increase of 2.4%, up from 2.3% in December.
Friday – 14 February 2020
  • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German Preliminary Q4 results are expected to slow down, at an annualised rate of 0.9% compared to 1.0% last quarter. Eurozone GDP should remain unchanged.
  • Retail Sales (USD, GMT 13:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.3% in January, and 0.4% for the ex-auto figure. Gasoline prices should have a neutral impact on retail activity, given an estimated slight -0.2% drop for the CPI gasoline index.
  • Michigan Sentiment (USD, GMT 15:00) – US consumer sentiment rose to 99.8 in the final January print from the University of Michigan survey, versus 99.1 in the preliminary reading for this month. The index is up 0.5 ticks from December’s 99.3. This is the best reading since the 100.0 in May. The preliminary February Michigan sentiment reading is forecast at 99.9.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!




Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
176
Points
389
Date : 11th February 2020.

Macro News & Events February 11 | 11th February 2020.




FX News Today –
Another record close for Stocks – EUR at 4 mth low, AUD recovers from 10 yr lows – nCoV – over 1,000 deaths and 43k infections – Overnight China offers more stimulus, more reports GDP cud be down over 1% 2020 – Powell, Lagarde & Carney ALL scheduled to speak to later.


Today
UK GDP, Ind. Production & Trade Balance, EU Growth Forecasts, JOLTS reports – PLUS – Powell, Lagarde and Carney all testify today – plus back up speeches from Haskel (BOE) and Kashkari & Quarles (FED).

Biggest (FX) Move overnight @ (07:00 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.53%) –Rallied from 73.20 lows yesterday, breaching 20hr MA & PP (73.35) at (23:00). Over 200hr MA (73.65) & R1 (73.70) by (05:00). MA’s and RSI both supportive, Stochastics overbought zone from 12:00 – topped at 95.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
176
Points
389
Date : 11th February 2020.

Macro News & Events February 11 | 11th February 2020.




FX News Today –
Another record close for Stocks – EUR at 4 mth low, AUD recovers from 10 yr lows – nCoV – over 1,000 deaths and 43k infections – Overnight China offers more stimulus, more reports GDP cud be down over 1% 2020 – Powell, Lagarde & Carney ALL scheduled to speak to later.


Today
UK GDP, Ind. Production & Trade Balance, EU Growth Forecasts, JOLTS reports – PLUS – Powell, Lagarde and Carney all testify today – plus back up speeches from Haskel (BOE) and Kashkari & Quarles (FED).

Biggest (FX) Move overnight @ (07:00 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.53%) –Rallied from 73.20 lows yesterday, breaching 20hr MA & PP (73.35) at (23:00). Over 200hr MA (73.65) & R1 (73.70) by (05:00). MA’s and RSI both supportive, Stochastics overbought zone from 12:00 – topped at 95.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
176
Points
389
Date : 12th February 2020.

FX Update – A weaker Yen & Stronger Kiwi today - 12th February




USDJPY, H1
The Yen remained soft while the Dollar bloc currencies extended recent gains as risk appetite in global markets held up, with a reported dip in new coronavirus (now Covid-19)cases in China being tonic for investors. Wall Street yesterday saw fresh record highs, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific equity index rose by another 1% today. USDJPY lifted through 110.00 to 110.13 and above Tuesday’s high at 109.96. AUDJPY, now in its third consecutive day of ascent, carved out a five-day high at 74.23 , stalling at R2. AUDUSD and NZDUSD lifted to respective a six-day highs, at 0.6737 and 0.6476, while USDCAD fell to a six-day low at 1.3272. The RBNZ left policy on hold following a board meeting today, and also removed guidance for more rate cuts, saying that only a longer than currently anticipated impact from the Covid-19 outbreak would warrant any further easing. New Zealand also has an election this November. Governor Orr is due to testify later today (19:10 GMT) on today’s MPC statement before Finance and Expenditure Select Committee.



Elsewhere, EURUSD looks to have found a footing after a run of seven consecutive down days, steadying so far today around 1.0900-1.0925, above the four-month low that was printed at 1.0891. Cable edged out a six-day high at 1.2969, surpassing yesterday’s high by a pip, while EURGBP ebbed to a nine-day low at 0.8413. The Pound is amid a phase of modest outperformance, with available January data out of the UK have shown a rebound in economic activity as the fog of political uncertainty cleared following the December general election, while Prime Minister Johnson announcing big plans for infrastructure projects. These have helped quell, for now, concerns about Brexit and divergence from the EU.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!




Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
176
Points
389
Date : 14th February 2020.

FX Update – EUR Pressure continues - 14th February




EURUSD, H1 / Weekly
Germany’s economy stagnated in Q4 last year, in line with a number of forecasts and a tad below consensus expectations, which had predicted a slight expansion of 0.1% q/q. Compared to negative quarterly prints in France and Italy, Germany is already the outperformer among the three big Eurozone countries and Q3 numbers for Germany were revised up to 0.2% from 0.1% reported initially. This left the working day adjusted annual rate 0.4% y/y a tad higher than anticipated, but down from 1.1% y/y in Q3. There is no full breakdown yet, but the stats office reported that private as well as public consumption slowed in the last quarter of 2019, while investment was mixed with construction investment, expanding again. Exports contracted, while imports picked up according to first estimate. Looking ahead, exports are likely to continue to suffer and orders numbers are predicting another weak quarter for manufacturing, which leaves the risk that the labour market will start to suffer. The balance of risks clearly is tilted to the downside not just for Germany’s economy.

The Euro posted fresh lows against the Dollar and other currencies, while both the safe haven Yen and Swiss franc lost yesterday’s bid as the daily increment of new coronavirus cases in China fell back alongside narratives that are downplaying yesterday’s jump in total reported cases in Hubei province as being just a reclassification. EURUSD posted a fresh 34-month low at 1.08265, and is set for its biggest two-week loss since July 2019. Today, the German GDP helped lift it to 1.0840 with the broader GDP data for the wider Eurozone yet to come. EURJPY printed a four-month low, at 118.86, and EURCHF a near-five-year-low, at 1.0609. EURGBP yesterday saw a two-month low below at 0.8295.

Elsewhere, USDJPY settled in the upper 109.00s, above the four-day low seen yesterday at 109.61. Cable consolidated gains seen yesterday, holding just shy of the nine-day high at 1.3069.



The EURUSD low earlier tested the S2 and 161.8 Fibonacci extension low of the December rally at 1.0820, below there is the daily lower channel at 1.0750. In the the longer term the 161.8 Fibonacci extension level from the Q419 rally is at 1.0650 and then the psychological 1.0500. The Q419, against the trend, re-trace rally came from this over extension from the 200-day moving average which is where we are now, so some retrace to possibly the 1.1050-75 zone could be expected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
176
Points
389
Date : 17th February 2020

Events to Look Out For Next Week 17th February 2020.




Uncertainties over the extent of the economic damage from the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) will keep the markets on shaky footing near term. Elsewhere, focus will be on Europe following Germany’s economic stagnation in Q4 last year as seen today. Looking ahead, ZEW exports and manufacturing remain in the spotlight. That said, further contraction on these leaves the risk that the labour market will start to suffer. The balance of risks is clearly tilted to the downside, and not just for Germany’s economy.

Monday – 17 February 2020

  • Eurogroup Meeting
  • US Bank Holiday – US banks will be closed in observance of Presidents’ Day – NYSE, Nasdaq and Bond markets are all fully closed.
Tuesday – 18 February 2020
  • RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The RBA minutes will provide more insight on the views the Australian Central Bank has about the economy.
  • Average Earnings and Unemployment (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Earnings are expected to have slowed by 3.1% in the last quarter of 2019, while the ILO Unemployment Rate for the 3 months to December is seen steady at 3.8%.
  • ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German Economic Sentiment for February is projected at 15.0 from the 26.7 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany declines further. The overall Eurozone reading though is expected to rise to 30.0 from 25.6.
  • Trade Balance (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Japanese imports should decrease -15.8% y/y in January, compared to -4.9% in December, in expectation of lower domestic consumption. Overall, the trade balance is expected to have worsened in January.
Wednesday – 19 February 2020
  • Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Prices are expected to have eased in January, with overall inflation expected to stand unchanged at 1.3% y/y, and core at 1.5% from 1.4% y/y last month.
  • Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Prices are expected to have improved to 0.1% in January following a flat CPI in December. The overall inflation should have expanded in January to a 2.2% y/y, matching December’s reading.
  • FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC minutes will provide more insight on the views the FED has about the economy.
Thursday – 20 February 2020
  • Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Employment change s.a. is expected to have increased by 31K in Australia in January, compared to 28.9K in December. The unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 5.2%.
  • Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Following the unexpected 0.6% m/m contraction in UK retail sales in December, Retail Sales are expected to grow by 0.6% in January.
  • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 12:30) –The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, provide information with regard to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions.
  • National CPI Index (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The Japanese price index should fall to 0.7% on a y/y basis, compared to 0.8% in December.
Friday – 21 February 2020
  • EU PMIs (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Both manufacturing and services February PMIs are expected to have dropped, leaving the composite at 51.0, down from 51.3 in the preliminary release for February. In Germany meanwhile, composite PMI should slow to 50.7 from 51.2.
  • UK Service PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The final services PMI for January was unexpectedly revised up, to 53.9 from 52.9 in the preliminary estimate, and the highest level in 16 months.
  • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – CPI inflation is forecasted to hold at 1.4% y/y as seen in January.
  • Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Core Canadian sales are anticipated to have risen by 0.4% m/m in December, compared to 0.2% m/m in November.
  • US PMIs (USD, GMT 14:45) – The Manufacturing PMI is expected to have increased to 52.5 in February, compared to 51.9 in January, while the Services PMI is expected to have slowed to 52.9.
  • Existing Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:45) – We expect a 0.4% rise in existing home sales in January to a 5.560 mln pace, after a rise to 5.540 mln in December. Pending home sales have grown substantially since Q4 of 2018, though we saw a big -4.9% pull-back in December.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

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