Hotforex - Market Analysis and News.

H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
373
Points
389
Date : 8th February 2021.

Events to Look Out this Week.



Leading indicators such as US and Chinese Inflation and GDP from the UK dominate the releases next week. The markets are going to remain focused on the vaccination programs development, while market volatility may slacken ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. China begins its New Year-Golden Week holiday on 11 February, as does Korea, while Taiwan starts a day earlier on Wednesday. Most other countries’ data will be out on Friday. Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.
Monday – 8 February 2021

  • Industrial Production (EUR, GMT 07:00) – Industrial production in Germany is expected to have dropped in December, reaching 0.7% m/m, below the 0.9% last month.
Tuesday – 9 February 2021
  • Trade Balance (CNY, GMT n/a) – The Chinese trade balance is expected to turn out positive in January, after the surplus of $78.17 billion in December.
Wednesday – 10 February 2021
  • Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – Chinese inflation is expected to grow in January at 1.1% m/m, with the headline at -0.1% y/y, following the 0.7% m/m rise on the monthly basis.
  • Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 07:00) – The final German HICP inflation for January is anticipated to remain unchanged at 1.6% y/y.
  • Consumer Price Index (USD, 13:30) – The US January CPI is expected to see 0.3% for the headline and 0.2% for the core, following a 0.4% gain for the headline and 0.1% for the core in December. CPI gasoline prices look poised to bounce 5.4% in January, leaving a tailwind for the headline. As-expected January figures would result in a 1.5% headline y/y increase, following a 1.4% pace in December. Core prices should show a 1.5% y/y rise, down from 1.6% in December. The headline y/y gains for all the inflation gauges are expected to climb sharply into Q2 of 2021 due to hard comparisons, leaving a peak headline CPI y/y gain in the 3.4% area in May, alongside a 2.6% y/y core price rise, with respective PCE y/y chain price gains of 2.6% and 2.0%.
  • BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 17:00)
Thursday – 11 February 2021
  • Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 13:30) – The US initial jobless claims fell -33k to 779k in the week ended January 30 after dropping -63k to 812k in the prior week. The decline in the most recent survey week leaves claims at the lowest level since the 716k reading in the November 27 week. Continuing claims dropped -193k to 4,592k in the January 23 week after slumping -190k to 4,785k (was 4,771k). This was another encouraging claims report, a trend which is expected to continue.
Friday – 12 February 2021
  • Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 07:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q4’s GDP is expected to slow down slightly at 15.8% q/q and -9.4% y/y.
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 07:30) – Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have risen, with both providing an upwards contribution of 0.5% m/m and 0.9% m/m in December.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
373
Points
389
Date : 9th February 2021.

Market Update – February 9 – BTC & Equities all-time-highs.





Market News Today
Equities (Nasdaq +0.95%) & BTC (+20%, $47k+) rally to new all-time highs & USD loses more momentum (USDIndex 90.65). USOil rallies to 13-month highs ($58.50), Gold up to $1840 and US 10-yr Yields at 1.16%. Details of US stimulus package show unemployment insurance will run until August 29th, & $1,400 cheques at the same income level as prior round but will reduce when income hits 75K. EU will follow Australia and get tech firms to pay for news (FT). Walt Disney & Gen. Motors up over 4.5% ahead of Earnings this week. Overnight – improved data from JPY, inflation increasing in NZD, and UK retail sales and German trade balance tick higher.

Today – German trade balance, US NFIB Business Optimism, EIA STEO, ECB’s Lane, Fed’s Bullard, Earnings – Twitter, Cisco & Total.





Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.40%) Continued Friday’s rally from 0.7135 lows and break of 20 MA yesterday at 0.7200 to test R1 today at 0.7245. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 63 & rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher & significantly over 0 line, Stochs. falling from OB zone after R1 breach, MFI remains in OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0009, Daily ATR 0.0064.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
373
Points
389
Date : 10th February 2021.

Market Update – February 10 – USD continues to cool.




Market News Today
USD down again,
Equities finished flat but Asian markets & Futs. higher after good earnings reports from Twitter, Cisco, Lyft and Toyota. Oil holds at 13-month highs, Gold holds 1840, BTC peaked at 48k and 10-yr Yields closed at 1.16% again, with expectations of inflation raised. Overnight JPY PPI in line but CNY CPI surprisingly dipped too (-0.3%), German CPI in line with expectations at 0.8%.

TodayUS CPI, Oil inventories, ECB’s Lagarde, Panetta, BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Powell, new Bonds from the UK, Germany & the US – Earnings from Coke, General Motors, Under Armour, Uber & 152 more US companies.





Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (-0.14%) Continued Friday’s decline from 0.9050 highs and re-break of 20 MA on Monday below 0.9000 to test S1 today at 0.8910. Faster MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 24 & and OS, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower & significantly under 0 line, Stochs OS zone from earlier this morning. H1 ATR 0.0005, Daily ATR 0.0050.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
373
Points
389
Date : 11th February 2021.

Market Update – February 11 – Consolidation: USD at lows, Equities at highs.



Market News Today
USD consolidates at lows, Equities finished flat (TWTR +13%). China, Japan and South Korea closed for start of Lunar New Year. US Inflation disappointed, taking the steam from the “buy everything” rally of the last few days. Biden spoke of concern about China’s “coercive and unfair economic practices” & human rights, ahead of speaking with Xi. Powell spoke of the significant bond purchasing programme continuing until Inflation rises significantly. Lagarde talked of not the time to slow down fiscal support & a digital EURO within 4 yrs. Oil slips a tad, Gold also consolidates and 10yr yields dipped to 1.12%. Overnight German Wholesale Inflation spiked to 2.1% from 0.6%, AstraZeneca Q4 sales beat estimates.

Narrow ranges have been prevailing in overall languid trading conditions. Singapore will be off tomorrow, and the lunar new year holiday will start tomorrow in Hong Kong. Despite these absentees, global stock markets have remained buoyant, if directionally unambitious. The dollar bloc currencies correspondingly have been firm while remaining below their respective Wednesday highs. The dollar itself settled above the lows that it saw yesterday. This left EURUSD making time in the lower 1.2100s, below Wednesday’s 10-day peak at 1.2145. USDJPY settled slightly to the north of the 104.50 level, above yesterday’s 13-day low at 104.41. Cable consolidated recent gains below yesterday’s 34-month peak at 1.3866.

Ahead, we anticipate that the dollar will continue to weaken, assuming that the reflation trade sustains on the back of the sharp drop on new positive Covid tests, which is being seen globally, vaccination optimism, and overall good corporate earnings reports, alongside stimulus and the prospect for a pent-up consumer spending spree in developed economies.

TodayUS initial/continued jobless claims, OPEC & IEA MOMR, ECB’s de Guindos and Earnings from 185 US cos. including PepsiCo and Walt Disney.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.38%) Rallied from S1 at 0.7713 earlier, testing R1 now at 0.7750, yesterday’s high 0.7755. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 61 & rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and breaking over 0 line, Stochs OB zone from earlier this morning. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0058.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
373
Points
389
Date : 16th February 2021.

Market Update – February 16.



Market News Today
The stock rally continued overnight as sentiment remains underpinned by growing conviction that the vaccine rollout will boost the global recovery and as Asian markets are coming back from the extended weekend. China remains closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. The JPN225 closed 1.3% higher above the 30000 mark, after trimming some gains following an FT story that China is considering limiting rare earth mineral supplies to US defence contractors, which rekindled concern over the future of US-China relations. This is a reminder that virus developments are not the only factor determining the world growth outlook.

Bond markets meanwhile remain under pressure as reflation trades unfold and the US 10-year rate jumped 2.3 bp to 1.23%. JGB rates are up 0.1 bp at 0.075%. GER30 and UK100 futures are marginally higher, underperforming versus US futures. US Treasury yields are at their highest since March. In FX markets, the USDIndex fell to a 3-week low while the USDJPY lifted to 105.54 amid broad pressure on the Yen, although the Dollar was lower against most other currencies. USOIL retraced to $59.90 from $60.95 – US boosted power demand but also threatened oil production in Texas. Crude markets are well into pre-pandemic ranges, yet global demand is not likely be restored to pre-pandemic levels for a considerable time.

Bitcoin
flirts with breaking through the $50,000 barrier – 350% gains in the past 12 months.

Today
– Data releases today focus on the second reading for Eurozone Q4 GDP, and German ZEW investor confidence for February. There is room for an upside surprise on the ZEW against the background of the global stock rally and strengthened confidence in the global recovery.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.51%) Broke 3-year Resistance area 76-76.50 following a 3-month rally. Faster MAs however have retraced in the past 4 hours, confirming the pullback from 76.70 highs to 76.30, and are currently sideways, suggesting consolidation above the 20-hour SMA. MACD histogram & signal line lost some ground, with RSI at 57 and Stochastic sloping aggressively lower in line with the pullback. However only a break below the 20-hour SMA could suggest further decline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
373
Points
389
Date : 17th February 2021.

Stock stalled, Gold down, BTC up amid sell off in Treasuries!.



Market News Today
The selloff in Treasuries deepened as the market returned from its long Presidents Day weekend. The stock rally started to run out of steam, while the selloff in bond markets continued. The bear steepener remained fully intact as the reflation trade and technicals gripped the market. 10-year Treasury yields reached levels last seen in February 2020 yesterday, before falling back -1.5 bp and settling around the 1.3% mark. Longer dated yields are at or near 1-year highs. But even when the full equity rally fizzled and the USA100 fell into the red, bond yields continued higher. A stronger than expected Empire State index also supported the bearish case in bonds.

JGB rates have lifted 2 bp to 0.094% and bonds also sold off in Australia and New Zealand, leaving rates more than 8 bp higher on the day. Meanwhile the JPN225 corrected -0.6%, despite an unexpected rebound in core machinery orders. GER30 and UK100 futures meanwhile are down -0.04% and up 0.3% respectively, while US futures are posting fractional gains after a mixed session in Asia.

Equities have already come a long way and there may not be much appetite to push valuations out further at this point, but stimulus hopes and vaccine developments continue to fuel reflation trades and central bank efforts to try and slow the rise in yields by stressing that monetary policy will remain accommodative, risk fuelling a bubble in speculative assets that could come back to haunt markets further down the line.

In FX markets USDJPY dropped back to 105.96, amid a broadly higher yen, although the Dollar rose against most other currencies. USOIL meanwhile is trading at $60.19 per barrel. EURUSD dropped back to 1.2070, Cable to 1.3868. Bitcoin rose, again, through $50,000 as signs of big investor interest in the asset drive more and more buying. Gold prices extended losses for a fifth straight session on Wednesday, slipping to near 2-week lows as soaring US Treasury yields and a firmer Dollar dented the bullion’s appeal.

Today – Data releases today focus on US Retail sales and Canadian inflation for January, along with the FOMC minutes.

The FOMC minutes to the January 26, 27 policy meeting should underscore the Fed’s commitment to a lower for longer rate stance, with no intention of trimming QE. We know the meeting resulted in no change in policy and so the minutes will not break any new ground. Indeed, last week Chair Powell’s sombre outlook where he emphasized the need for ongoing support from monetary policy due to the pandemic was in keeping with the tweaks in the January policy statement. One such tweak was that the Fed’s acknowledgement that “the pace of the recovery in the economy and employment has moderated in recent months, with weakness concentrated in the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic.” We’ve also heard Fedspeak that the entire FOMC is generally on board with this posture, including allowing inflation to run hot for some time.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.40%) extended losses below 20-DMA. Next Support remains at the 50-DMA at 71.60. MACD lines and RSI are neutral but still turning lower while intraday they are both negatively configured, with fast MAs sloping further lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
373
Points
389
Date : 18th February 2021.

Dollar settled as commodities hit new highs.





Both the US Dollar and US Treasury yields have settled off their respective highs, while global equity markets have come off the boil as investors take stock in the face of lofty valuations. The reflation trade remained alive and kicking in commodities, however, with copper and other base metals surging to fresh multi-year highs, buoyed by demand on Chinese exchanges, which reopened after their week long hiatus for the Lunar New Year holiday. USOIL prices also clocked a new 13-month peak.

A Reuters article highlighted a laboratory study showing that the Pfizer vaccine was less effective against the South African variant of SARS-Cov2, which may have been a contributory factor behind the more risk-cautious sentiment in stock markets, although evidently this story had little impact in the commodity realm. Some scientists have been welcoming the similarities in the various ‘successful’ mutations of the coronavirus — that is those variants that have become dominant out of the thousands of mutations — as it suggests that the only way the virus is successfully mutating is to more transmissible versions, as seen the South African, Brazilian and UK variants, rather than to a more deadly version of itself. There is also confidence that existing vaccines can also be relatively easily tweaked to deal these variants, too. In currency markets today, ranges have been narrow so far.



The USDIndex has seen a less than 10 pip range, holding just below the 91.00 level. EURUSD has been similarly unambitious in directional terms, plying a narrow path above yesterday’s 10-day low at 1.2023. Cable has recouped to levels above 1.3900 after trading under 1.3850 yesterday. The 34-month peak seen on Tuesday is at 1.3951. At the same time, the Pound has posted a fresh 10-month high against the Euro, and has lifted against the Yen and other currencies.



This continues the moderate outperforming bias the Pound has been exhibiting on the year so far, since the UK completed Brexit by leaving its transition membership of the EU’s common market and customs union. News earlier this week that the UK government reached, ahead of schedule, its target to vaccinate the most vulnerable groups against Covid have given markets reason to be bullish on Sterling, which is amid what could be described as a crawl out of historically weak trade-weighted valuations with four-and-a-half years of Brexit uncertainty having finally come to an end. Only Israel and the UAE have vaccinated faster than the UK, and the contrast with the situation in the EU has been mooted lately in market narratives as being a bearish factor for EURGBP. Prime Minister Johnson will be laying out a road map for reopening next Monday. This should keep the Pound broadly underpinned.

A modicum of yen outperformance has seen USDJPY ebb to a 2-day low at 105.69. The pair remains up by just over 2.5% on the year-to-date, corresponding with the pronounced widening in US Treasury over JGB yield differentials, which in the case of the 10-year benchmarks has been more than 35bp over this period. Yen crosses, which have recently been trading at either multi-month or multi-year highs, also tipped lower. In the cryptocurrency realm, Bitcoin rallied to yet another record, this time above $52,500, amid increasing signs that the asset class, which is essentially a digital version of a precious metal (limited supply and no yield, although with the added benefit of no storage costs), is becoming accepted by institutional investors.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
373
Points
389
Date : 19th February 2021.

US Open – Dollar, Oil & Gold Pressured; Equities higher.



The Dollar has softened for a second consecutive day, despite US Treasury yields perking up, although remaining off trend highs seen earlier in the week. Global stock markets have continued to exhibit a sputtering price action in the face of historically stretched valuations and the recent spike in yields. In the commodity realm, oil prices have corrected while base metals have remained buoyant, with nickel and particularly Copper, for instance, posting fresh major trend highs.



The USDIndex posted a three-day low at 90.19, finding some support at the S2 level, which marks a little over a two-thirds retrace of the gains that were seen on Tuesday and Wednesday. EURUSD concurrently rose above 1.2100 for the first time since Wednesday, to stall at R2 1.2140. USDJPY dropped for a third straight day, posting a three-day low below S2 105.30. The Yen traded softer against most other currencies. Cable lifted above 1.4000 for the first time since April 2018, while the Pound traded softer against the Euro, correcting after rising against the common currency on each day over the last week, which produced an 11-month peak yesterday.



There was unusual divergence among the dollar bloc, which correlated with the divergence between rising base metal prices and a concurrent fall in oil prices, with the Australian Dollar outperforming the main currencies while the Canadian Dollar underperformed. This saw the AUDCAD cross lift by over 0.7% in pegging a 32-month high at 0.9915. AUDUSD, meanwhile, surged 1% in making a 35-month high at 0.7843, while AUDJPY rallied into 26-month high territory. USDCAD ebbed comparatively moderately, to a three-day low at 1.2632, while the Canadian Dollar weakened against the Euro and Yen, among other currencies.



Weaker oil prices affected the Loonie and other oil correlating currencies. Front-month WTI oil futures dove over 2.5% in posting a one-week low as USOIL touched $58.57. USOil is down over 5% from the 13-month high that was seen yesterday at $62.26. Bitcoin continued to hold firm on dips, aided by Elon Musk asserting that bitcoin “is simply a less dumb form of liquidity than cash.” Gold, which spiked to 7-month lows during the Asian session at $1760.58, has since recovered over $1770.00 but is down for a seventh consecutive day, losing over 4%.



US equity futures have extended higher to post small gains with the USA30 up 0.1%, the USA500 0.4% firmer, and the USA100 0.5% higher. European bourses are in the green with the GER30 rallying 0.5% while the UK100 lags and is only 0.1% higher.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
HeadMarket Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
373
Points
389
Date : 22nd February 2021.

Markets Update – February 22 – It’s all about the Yields.



Market News Today
Equities heavy as Yields, Copper and VIX soar. USD recovers from lows; safe haven JPY & CHF suffer.
US10yr yields touched 1.38% (now 1.345%), Equities closed down on Friday and for the week, FUTS now into 5th day lower. Reflation trade & progress in vaccination worldwide, especially in developed economies, helps commodity currencies & boosts sentiment for riskier assets. Commodities lifted (especially Copper) – except Gold ($1790) which appears to be losing its inflation hedge status to BTC, (new ATHs over $57K). VIX FUTS up 4.4% to 25.80.

This weekRBNZ rate decision, Progress on stimulus 1.9tn stimulus package, US GDP, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, PCE & Powell testimony. Earnings season continues (392 of S&P500 reported – 80% have beat estimates)

Today – German IFO, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Bowman. UK PM Johnson to outline lockdown exit plans for England. Earnings from Marathon Oil & Occidental Petroleum.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.34%) Rallied from 200MA on Friday (0.8940) Over 20 Ma Friday over R1 and R2 today – moving to test 0.9000 Faster MA’s aligned and trending higher, RSI 72 OB but still rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and broke over 0 line on open today. Stochs. very OB and touching 100. H1 ATR 0.0009 Daily ATR 0.0080.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
373
Points
389
Date : 23rd February 2021.

Market Update – February 23 – USD Remains Heavy.



Market News Today
Equities heavy & USD down again
(Nasdaq2.46%, TSLA -8.55% but DIS+4.4%) as Yields (+1.8% 10yr) & Commodities (inc. Oil +2% & Gold) gained. Commodity currencies close to 3-year highs. Another volatile session for BTC57k-49K. Facebook restores some Aussie news sites, Marathon & Occidental both missed expectations, HSBC announced a 34% fall in profits. Huawei launched a $2,800 foldable phone. US passed 500,000 Covid deaths (20% of global total) & England announced a slow exit from lockdowns. UK labour data was weak but better than expected (claims down & earnings up).

The Dollar remained on a softening path in what is now a fourth consecutive trading day of weakening, which has spanned over phases of both risk-on and risk-wary sentiment in global markets, alongside a continued ascent in Treasury yields.

Overall, as witnessed by gains in commodity prices over this period, which have been attributed by some market narratives today as helping revive stock market sentiment in Asia, the reflation trade remains in play. Copper prices, for instance, hit fresh 10-year highs today, and are up by nearly 20% on the year to day and by 62% from year-ago levels. Other base metals have seen a similar magnitude of advance.

There remains a conviction in markets that the reflation trade — the escape from pandemic recession and slow growth to the anticipated eventual return to societal and economic normalcy, fuelled by massive stimulus and a presumed unleashing of a pent up consumer ‘lockdown savings’ spending spree in developed economies — is inherently dollar bearish. The Dollar is richly valued by the measure of historic trade weighted levels, and many value/relative value investment opportunities in the inflation trade lie outside of the US economy. SocGen research, for instance, last week highlighted that the consensus expectation is for earnings to rise 30% in 2021 for companies in the MSCI World Index, and by 40% in emerging markets. That said, the Dollar (as measured by the USDIndex) remains above its early January lows. When it became clear that the Democrats would control the Senate following the early-January Georgia run-off elections, this put the brakes on what had been an unfolding dollar weakening trend — especially in light of the consequential passing of the gargantuan $1.9 tln stimulus bill, which has the potential to bring forward Fed tightening sooner than it would otherwise have been. But for now the Fed is likely to stick to its dovish guns, which is what we expect Fed chair Powell will do to today during his Congressional testimony of the central bank’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report.

Today – EZ CPI (final), US Consumer Confidence, Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony to the Senate, BoC’s Macklem.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (-0.34%) Rejected 0.9250 yesterday, moved under PP, 20Hr & 50Hr MA earlier to test toward 0.9200. Recovered 50MA now. Faster MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 45 and neutral, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower, with a weak break of 0 line. Stochs. approaching OS. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0055.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
373
Points
389
Date : 24th February 2021.

Market Update – February 24 – Sterling & Commodity Currencies Soar.



Market News Today
Equities recover from significant falls, Powell pushes for inflation, USD remains heavy, yields cool from highs, NZD spikes following RBNZ.
Commodity currencies & Sterling at 3-year highs, Copper at near 10-year high, Oil slipped from 1-year highs. Gold holds over $1800. BTC up from under 45k to recover 50K. German GDP beats at 0.3%. Overnight – Japanese Inflation slips, ASO talks weak Q1 GDP and need for more Bonds. Nikkei closed lower -1.6%.

The Pound and the New Zealand Dollar surged to fresh trend highs, which along with a side theme of yen weakness, provided the main action during Asian trading ahead of the London interbank open. Cable spiked by some 180 pips from yesterday’s New York closing level in posting a fresh 36-month high at 1.4234. The pair subsequently settled lower, to the upper 1.4100s, which still left Sterling with a near 1% gain on the day. At the same time, EURGBP dropped sharply, to a one-year low at 0.8541, while GBPJPY stormed above the 150.00 level for the first time since May 2018.

Stop orders and option related demand was reported. It’s not clear if there was a specific catalyst, though the Telegraph newspaper reported British government sources saying that Covid restrictions could be lifted sooner than laid out in PM Johnson’s roadmap, which was outlined earlier in the week, if “real world data on the effect of vaccines is better than expected.” So far the data has been encouraging, and the UK’s ahead-of-the-pack vaccine rollout has been bullish factor for the Pound. The UK economy and the Pound underperformed peers during the height of the first lockdowns last year, and the vista of reopening has been having the opposite effect, especially with Brexit uncertainty having finally ended.

The Kiwi Dollar, meanwhile, also rallied, after initially dipping in the immediate wake of the RBNZ policy announcement. The antipodean central bank left the cash rate unchanged at 0.25%, as had been widely anticipated, while the main takeaway from the statement and Governor Orr’s press conference is that policymakers now see the next move as being a tightening, although this was framed in context of uncertainty, ongoing risks to growth etc. Once market participants discerned this, NZDUSD rallied briskly to a new 34-month high at 0.7384.

As for the Yen, the currency posted across-the-board declines. USDJPY consequentially lifted to a two-day at 105.58, while AUDJPY and NZDJPY printed new 26-month highs, and CADJPY a one-year peak. EURJPY jumped to within 15 pips of recent 26-month highs, while EURUSD remained rooted in a 20-pip range in the mid 1.2100s. The other dollar bloc currencies, outside the case of the New Zealand Dollar, posted fresh highs, despite weaker global stock markets and softer commodity prices today. AUDUSD pegged a three-year high at 0.7945, while USDCAD dropped to a 34-month low at 1.2557. Equity markets remained under pressure, with Fed chair Powell not doing quite enough to damp down yields during his Senate testimony yesterday, while a rise in stock-trading stamp duty was in part behind a steep decline in Chinese stocks today.

Today – US new home sales, DoEs, BoE’s Haldane, Bailey, Vlieghe, Haskel, Broadbent, Fed’s Powell, Brainard, Clarida.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.73%) Rallied from break of 20MA yesterday at 148.00 to breach 150.00 earlier. R3 149.20, trades at 14960 now. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 80.00 & OB, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher with a big break of 0 line yesterday. Stochs. down from OB zone. H1 ATR 0.2630, Daily ATR 0.9350.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
373
Points
389
Date : 25th February 2021.

Market Update – February 25 – Risk On, Commodity Currencies lead.



Market News TodayUSD at 3-year lows, Equities recover over 1%, (Dow over 32K) Yields cool again but remain relatively elevated (10yr – 1.41%). RISK ON. JPY & CHF heavy. Commodity currencies & Sterling hold bid, EUR breaks January resistance. Copper at 10-year high, Oil at 13-mth high, Gold under $1800. BTC at 50K. Sentiment lifted as J&J announce a single shot vaccine and independent study shows Pfizer vaccine 94% effective. Overnight – Nikkei up 1.67%, German Gfk confidence ticks higher, Gamestock rallied over 100% and then another 75+% after hours!

Reflation trades are back in full swing with bonds selling off and stocks rallying, with the combination of fiscal stimulus and ongoing monetary support fulling the moves. US 10-year rates have dropped back from session highs, but are still up 3.2 bp at 1.41%. Japan’s 10-year has gained 2.1 bp to 0.125% and longer dated benchmarks have now broken multi-annual highs. Australia and New Zealand bonds underperformed and Australia’s 10-year rate lifted nearly 12 bp, despite the fact that the RBA bought bonds for the second time this week. Fed Chair Powell tried to dampen inflation concerns and Vice Chair Clarida said he expects current bond purchases to be maintained at the current pace for the rest of the year. That will likely continue to underpin risky assets and in some quarters add to concerns that easy money is fuelling bubbles in equities and elsewhere.

Today – US Durable Goods, GDP, Weekly Claims & PCE Prices. ECB’s Lane, de Guindos, de Cos, Fed’s Bostic, Bullard, Quarles, Williams, and Earnings from over 400 companies in US & Europe.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.36%) Continued yesterday’s momentum rallying from 83.20 and holding over break of 20MA testing over R2 (84.50) to 84.65, R3 85.00. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 77 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but flattening after big break of 0 line yesterday. Stochs down from OB zone but rising again. H1 ATR 0.1325, Daily ATR 0.6000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
H

HFblogNews

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2019
373
Points
389
Date : 26th February 2021.

Market Update – February 26 – End of Month shenanigans.




Market News TodayYields spike (10-yr +9.27% – over 1.52), Equities tank (Nasdaq -3.52%, Nikkei -4%), USD off 3-year lows. Commodity, EM currencies & Sterling cool from highs. Oil holds up (US attack on Iranian groups in Syria), Gold falls further under $1770, BTC at $45K. US data yesterday biased to the upside (big fall Claims, Durables beat & GDP in-line.) Overnight – weak Housing, also weak but better than expected CPI & Retail data from JPY. Senate rejects $15 min wage in Stimulus bill and looks to trim the $1.9t proposals.

The dollar and yen rallied as a risk-off theme coursed through global markets, with equity markets, commodities, including base metals and oil, all tumbling. The sharp spike in US and most other sovereign yields this week and the associated concerns about inflation have driven the correction in risk assets and currencies. We maintain that sovereign yields are lifting out of exceptionally low levels, that rising yields and interest rates are par for the course in major bull markets in equities by historic standards, and that the prospect of higher corporate earnings can still carry equities higher. But for now, the prevailing bias is a risk-off one, although Treasury yields have dropped back quite sharply from highs today. In the mix today has been news of a US airstrike in Syria against infrastructure used by Iranian-backed militia, which was reportedly in response to recent Iranian attacks on US interests in Iraq.

The USDIndex rallied nearly 0.5% in posting a four-day high at 90.49, while EURUSD concurrently dropped to a two-day low at 1.2129. Cable retreated back under 1.4000 on route to pegging an eight-day low at 1.3903. The Australian and New Zealand dollars underperformed, not surprisingly, having been outperformers during the risk-on times. AUDUSD fell over 0.5% in printing a one-week low at 0.7805. USDCAD lifted to a four-day peak at 1.2649, extending the sharp rebound out of yesterday’s three-year low at 1.2466. The Yen, meanwhile, has been the biggest gainer, outperforming even the dollar so far today as its traditional role as a haven currency become re-established. USDJPY dropped from a six-month high at 106.43 to a low at 105.86. Yen crosses dropped sharply out of trend highs in synchrony, with AUDJPY, for instance, diving some 2.5% from the three-year high the cross had seen yesterday.

Over in the cryptocurrency world, sharp declines have made a return. Bitcoin has hit a low so far just above $44,000, which is nearly 15% down on yesterday’s high and some 25% down on the record peak that was seen earlier in the week. Arguments by crypto advocates that bitcoin is a hedge against inflation have evidently been found wanting.

Today – US Personal Income, PCE & core PCE, Chicago PMI, Uni of Michigan, ECB’s Schnabel, BoE’s Ramsden, Haldane.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.61%) Reversal of yesterday’s rally towards 85.00. Broke lower and under 20MA at R1 84.45 yesterday, now under PP and testing S1 and 200hr MA at 83.00. Faster MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 34 and falling, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower, falling after break of 0 line earlier. Stochs up from OS zone and rising again. H1 ATR 0.1325, Daily ATR 0.6000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click to register for FREE!



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

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